Research Statement  [PDF]  [July 2023]

Research Interests: Macroeconomics, International Finance, Productivity Growth

Conferences I am helping organize

  1. 11th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance. Agenda.
    April 10, 2026
  2. 2025 Asia Economic Policy Conference at SF Fed. Agenda.
    Nov 20–21, 2025
  3. Behavioral Macro Conference at SF Fed. Agenda.
    October 27, 2025

Working Papers

  1. Can Models with Idiosyncratic Risk Solve the Equity Premium Puzzle? Redux
    (with Gleb Kozliakov and Emile A. Marin)
    March 2026
  2. Incomplete Markets and Exchange Rates
    (with Emile A. Marin)
    December 2025
    Old version titled Low Risk Sharing with Many Assets
  3. A New Labor Market Stress Indicator
    (with Rohit Garimella and Òscar Jordà)
    December 2025
  4. A Behavioral Foundation for the Investment Wedge
    (with Jean-Paul L'Huillier and Pierlauro Lopez)
    August 2025
  5. Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations
    (with James Cloyne, Òscar Jordà, and Alan M. Taylor)
    July 2025
    Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Monetary Economics
  6. The Financial Origins of Non-Fundamental Risk
    (with Sushant Acharya and Keshav Dogra)
    May 2023
  7. Distribution of Market Power, Endogenous Growth, and Monetary Policy
    (with Yumeng Gu)
    February 2024

Publications / Articles Accepted for Publication

  1. The Long-run Effects of Monetary Policy
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
    (with Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor)
    Won the Dr. Subir V Gokarn Best Paper Award at 19th Macroeconomics and Finance Conference · Replication Code
  2. Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework
    Review of Economic Studies, Volume 91, Issue 5, October 2024
    (with Jean-Paul L'Huillier and Donghoon Yoo)
    Replication Code
  3. Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Volume 16, Issue 3, Pages 389–416, July 2024
    (with Pablo Cuba-Borda)
    Online Appendix with additional results · Replication Code
  4. Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
    The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 6, November 2023, Pages 2822–2879
    (with Nicolas Caramp)
    Won the Best Paper Award at the Delhi Winter School 2020 · Replication Code
  5. Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity
    IMF Economic Review, Vol. 72(1), pages 152–195, March 2024
    (with Katheryn N. Russ and Jay C. Shambaugh)
  6. Supply or Demand? Policymakers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
    European Economic Review, January 2024, 161, 104617
    (with Antonio Fatás)
    Replication Code
  7. Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
    Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 104(1), pp. 166–175, January 2022
    (with Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor)
    Replication Code
  8. Output Hysteresis and Optimal Monetary Policy
    Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 117, pp. 871–886, January 2021
    (with Vaishali Garga)
    Online Appendix with proofs, additional results on fiscal policy, empirics, and quantitative · Replication Code
  9. Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 105, pp. 21–43, August 2019
    (with Gauti Eggertsson)
    Replication Code
  10. The Effect of Foreign Shocks on the Indian Economy
    India Policy Forum 2019, Vol. 16: 1–47
    (with Aeimit Lakdawala)
  11. A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
    IMF Economic Review, Vol. 64(4), pp. 581–634, December 2016
    (with Gauti Eggertsson, Neil Mehrotra and Larry Summers)
  12. Tariffs and the Macroeconomy (publisher's link)
    Oxford Research Encyclopedia in Economics and Finance, July 2023
    (with Xiangtao Meng and Katheryn N. Russ)

Policy / Blog Articles

  1. Introducing a Weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator
    (with Òscar Jordà)
    SF Fed Blog, September 30, 2025
  2. Tracking Labor Market Stress
    (with Rohit Garimella and Òscar Jordà)
    Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2025-19, August 18, 2025
  3. Does Monetary Policy Have Long-run Effects?
    (with Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor)
    Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2023-23, September 5, 2023
  4. The Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
    (with Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor)
    VoxEU.org, April 8, 2020
  5. The Long Economic Hangover of Pandemics
    (with Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor)
    Finance and Development, June 2020, Vol. 57 No. 2: 12–15

Discussions

  1. Golden Fetters and the Causal Effects of Countercyclical Monetary Policy
    K. J. Mitchener and G. Pina, West Coast Workshop in International Finance, 2018
    [discussion slides]
  2. Multinational Firms, Trade and the Trade-Comovement Puzzle
    G. Udupa, CAFRAL conference on Financial System and Macroeconomy in Emerging Economies, 2018
    [discussion slides]
  3. Taking away the Punch Bowl: Monetary Policy and Financial Instability
    K. D. Sheedy, XXI Annual Inflation Targeting Conference, 2019
    [discussion slides]
  4. Zombie Firm Dynamics and China's Monetary Policy
    W. Guo, D. Jia and T. W. Li, 11th Tsinghua Workshop in Macroeconomics, 2019
    [discussion slides]
  5. Zombie Credit and (Dis-)inflation: Evidence from Europe
    V. Acharya, M. Crosignani, T. Eisert and C. Eufinger, Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conference on Monetary Economics and Reality, 2019
    [discussion slides]
  6. Foreign-currency exposures and the financial channel of exchange rates: Eroding monetary policy autonomy?
    G. Georgiadis and F. Zhu, CEBRA-IFM Annual Conference, 2019
    [discussion slides]
  7. Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment
    A. Krishnamurthy and W. Li, CESifo Macro, Money and International Finance, 2021
    [discussion slides]
  8. Diagnostic Business Cycles
    F. Bianchi, C. Ilut and H. Saijo, NBER Monetary Economics Spring 2022
    [discussion slides]
  9. Assessing Central Bank Commitment to Inflation Targeting: Evidence From Financial Market Expectations in India
    V. Garga, A. Lakdawala and R. Sengupta, CAFRAL conference on Financial System and Macroeconomy in Emerging Economies, 2022
  10. Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission
    R. Duval, D. Furceri, R. Lee and M. Tavares, ASSA 2023
  11. Can Today's and Tomorrow's World Uniformly Gain from Carbon Taxation?
    L. Kotlikoff, F. Kubler, A. Polbin, and S. Scheidegger, SF Fed Climate and the Business Cycle Conference, 2023
    [discussion slides]

Recent Media

  1. Jordà, Singh, & Taylor, "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy" frbsf working paper
    Covered by Bloomberg, Financial Times [1], Financial Times [2], Financial Times [3]
    Summary at FRBSF Economic Letter
  2. Jordà, Singh, & Taylor, "Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics" w26934.pdf
    Covered by Barron's, Bloomberg, The Economist [1], The Economist [2], Reuters, The Telegraph
    Summary at VoxEU and IMF Finance and Development
  3. Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh, & Summers, "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation" published draft
    Covered by Washington Post, Paul Krugman's Blog at NY Times, Economist's View